-Crude Oil Prices Trend
China, the world’s top oil importer, is set to start 2019 buying little or no crude from the United States despite a three-month truce in a trade scrap between the two nations, with relatively high freight costs and political uncertainty choking demand.
That muted appetite means the United States, which became the world’s top oil producer this year as its shale output hit record levels, will continue to hold only a sliver of China’s market even as a wave of new refining capacity starts up there.
We have too much oil right now: Former Shell Oil President
Former Shell Oil President John Hofmeister on the decline in oil prices.
The collapse in oil prices, now hovering around $45 per barrel in the U.S., is terrifying, according to former Shell Oil President John Hofmeister.
“It’s getting to a scary point,” he said during an interview on FOX Business’ Varney & Co Opens a New Window. . “If we get below $40 we’ll see rapid stopping of drilling because the companies simply can’t afford it.”
The drop in oil is also a warning sign for the global economy.
Viable prices, according to Hofmeister, range from $50 to $60 a barrel.
Crude Opens a New Window. prices sunk to a 17-month low on Friday, down about 24 percent this year, as global oversupply kept buyers away from the market ahead of the holiday break. However, in Hofmeister’s opinion, crude is at its lowest point.
“I hope for the sake of both consumers and the industry that we are at the bottom,” he said.
Unlike some investment banks that were quick to revise down their forecast for crude oil benchmarks next year, Swiss UBS is rather bullish: its head of asset allocation for APAC, Adrian Zuercher, says Brent crude could rebound to US$70 and even US$80 a barrel over the next 12 months.
Speaking to CNBC, Zuercher noted that while supply of crude oil was still abundant, this could soon change as the OPEC+ production cuts enter into effect.
While the recent oil price drop suggests many don’t believe these cuts will be as effective as the first ones in 2017, Zuercher noted a report by the Wall Street Journal that Saudi Arabia plans to cut more than initially expected, and the fact that Venezuela’s production would likely continue downwards as would Iran’s under the weight of U.S. sanctions.
Four of the UK’s largest coffee retailers – Caffè Nero, Greggs, McDonald’s UK and Pret A Manger – have today confirmed they have joined a nationwide cup recycling scheme that funds the collection of takeaway cups for recycling.
Launched this year by Costa Coffee, the Valpak Scheme is a market-led solution whereby coffee retailers pay a supplement of £70 to the waste collectors for every tonne of cups collected.
This takes the value of one tonne of cups from being worth on average £50 to £120, a 140% increase, making it commercially and financially attractive for waste collectors to put in place the infrastructure and processes to collect, sort and transport coffee cups to recycling plants, meaning fewer cups will end up in landfill.
Crude oil markets fell during the day on Friday again, as traders continue to shun the black gold. At this point, we are testing the next support level, as it looks like we are going to continue to struggle to pick this market up.
WTI Crude Oil
The WTI Crude Oil market continues to drift lower towards the $45 level, an area that of course will cause a bit of support and if you have been watching us here at FX Empire, you know that I have recently said that a break below the $50 level should signal another five dollar loss, as we had been consolidating between $50 and $55 above.
If we can break down below the $45 level, then I think we could go looking towards the $40 level. In the short term, I think that rallies are going to be sold at the first signs of exhaustion.
Falling oil prices are starting to affect US shale producers, as many companies are cutting back on their investment plans, eyeing lower operational profitability amid a weaker market next year.
US shale drillers appear to be facing the same old problem: declining oil prices. Several top producers of shale oil said they have downgraded their spending plans for the next year as US oil (WTI) recently plunged below $50/bbl after the worst quarter in roughly four years.
Shale producers, most notably, working in North Dakota’s Bakken oilfield and Texas’ Permian Basin, said the recent 40-percent decline in oil prices and the mounting concerns of oversupply have prompted them to review next year’s budgets.
Production has been expected to rise 11 percent more in 2019 as large oil firms and independents added wells this year.
U.S. shale producers hit the brakes on 2019 spending New Delhi: U.S. shale producers are slamming the brakes on next year’s drilling with crude prices off 40 percent and mounting fears of oversupply, paring budgets that in some cases were set only weeks earlier.
The reversal is alarming because blistering growth in shale fields has propelled U.S. crude output 16 percent to about 10.9 million barrels per day for 2018, above Saudi Arabia and Russia. Production has been expected to rise 11 percent more in 2019 as large oil firms and independents added wells this year.
BP and Azerbaijan’s crude oil major SOCAR’s subsidiary in Turkey are mulling the creation of a joint venture for purified terephthalic acid (PTA) with a 1.25m tonnes/year production capacity, the UK’s oil and petrochemicals major said on Thursday.
The proposed facility would be based in Aliaga in west Turkey, next to SOCAR’s STAR refinery, and would come onstream in 2023.
A final investment decision (FID) is expected in 2019.
Apart from 1.25m tonnes/year of PTA, the joint venture would also produce 840,000 tonnes/year of paraxylene (PX) and 340,000 tonnes/year of benzene, BP said.
Turkey’s petrochemicals major Petkim, of which SOCAR Turkey is the majority shareholder with a 51% stake, also operates a complex in the area.
KADI decided to continue the 3.9 per cent anti-dumping tax for an additional five-year period on Việt Nam’s BOPP film product. — Photo thoibaotaichinhvietnam.vn
Komite Anti-Dumping Indonesia (KADI) under Indonesia’s Ministry of Trade officially decided to continue applying the anti-dumping tax of 3.9 per cent on the products from Việt Nam for an additional five-year period.
According to the KADI’s conclusion on the sunset review of the anti-dumping taxes levied on Biaxially Oriented Polypropylene (BOPP) film imported from Việt Nam and Thailand, the tax rate applied for Thailand’s products is 28.4 per cent.
Asia’s naphtha market is envisaged to draw support from healthy regional demand for petrochemical production, which might outpace supply despite expectations of ample western arbitrage cargo flows.
A ship being loaded at a port in Tokyo. (Photo by Franck Robichon/EPA/REX/Shutterstock)
Spot naphtha prices have been on a rollercoaster, fluctuating heavily in the fourth quarter of the year due to volatility in upstream global crude oil futures markets.
Naphtha prices in Asia have plummeted to historical lows of below $500/tonne CFR (cost and freight) Japan, in part dragged down by substantial falls in crude oil futures combined with a supply overhang situation.
But consistent end-user demand for downstream petrochemical production has helped to soak up regional supply, alleviating some of the bearish sentiment.
Finance experts and the Federal Government have expressed divergent views on the oil price benchmark of $60 per barrel proposed for the 2019 budget.
The 2019 budget, presented to the National Assembly on Wednesday, is based on oil production of 2.3 million barrels per day, with an oil benchmark price of $60 per barrel and exchange rate of N305 to a dollar.
Other key economic parameters underlining the budget are a plan to bring down inflation to 9.98 per cent; nominal consumption of N119.28tn; nominal Gross Domestic Product of N139.65tn and a GDP growth rate of 3.01 per cent.
The investment will increase the refinery’s output yield and generate around 4,300 construction jobs
Motiva Enterprises LLC, a subsidiary of Saudi Arabia’s state-owned oil company Saudi Aramco, has recently announced plans to invest around $6.6 billion in its Port Arthur refinery, to enhance its petrochemical business.
Saudi Aramco’s Motiva to invest $6.6 billion in Port Arthur expansion
Sources close to the matter state that the company plans to buy a new $4.7 billion worth steam cracker to produce ethylene, used to produce polyethylene, and other petrochemicals. Moreover, Motiva considers building a $1.9 billion complex that would produce paraxylene and benzene, cite sources.
Reportedly, the two projects would be complete by 2022, based on the firm’s decision to move forward with the investments and procure required permits. The project is expected to create thousands of new construction jobs and boost the nation’s largest oil refinery in the petrochemical sector.
Advanced composites solutions provider, TCS, and Brabham Automotive are pleased to announce a strategic partnership in advanced material and process development for current and future vehicle builds.
Building on a remarkable 70-year racing pedigree, Sir Jack Brabham’s son David Brabham announced Brabham’s return to manufacturing in May of this year with the global launch of Brabham Automotive’s first product, the stunning BT62.
Crafted from lightweight carbon fibre and weighing only 972kg, the BT62’s exterior surface and aggressive aerodynamic package combine to strike the optimal balance between function and form. TCS will utilise its current market leading material technology and processing, including prepregs, advanced resins and adhesive systems, whilst further developing bespoke lighter, stiffer structural and cosmetic material solutions. The partnership will give Brabham clients much greater design choice and optimum technology, whilst holding firm to the ‘true drivers car’ DNA.
Indorama Ventures Public Company Limited (IVL; Bangkok, Thailand; www.indoramaventures.com) announced that it has entered into an agreement with Invista (Wichita, Kan.; www.invista.com) to acquire INVISTA Resins & Fibers GmbH, which owns a high value-added polyethylene terephthalate (PET) manufacturing facility located in Gersthofen, Germany. The Gersthofen site has a combined capacity of 282,000 metric tons per year (m.t./yr), and employs approximately 140 employees.
The transaction is expected to be completed in the 1st quarter 2019, subject to regulatory approvals.
Crude expected to trade in $60-$70 per barrel range towards second half of the year
Abu Dhabi: Analysts expect oil prices to recover next year due to an output cut agreement between the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) and non-Opec members and declining production from Venezuela and Iran.
Oil demand is also forecast to be higher in 2019, something expected to support oil prices.
“There is pervasive market worry that the planned cuts by Opec+ [the alliance between Opec and non-Opec oil producers] will not suffice, amid economic growth concerns, to offset the relentless increase in US shale supply and stabilise the market,” said Giovanni Staunovo, commodity analyst at UBS Wealth Management in a statement.