Emerging markets growth – Introduction Why the Rising BRICS Economies Are Outpacing the G7 in Global Growth and What That Means for Economic Power Shifts 06-11-2025
Emerging markets growth – Introduction
The global economic landscape is undergoing a significant shift as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that emerging markets will lead growth while traditional advanced economies lag behind. The concept of emerging markets growth is proving vital in understanding why the BRICS bloc is expanding faster than the G7 countries. According to the IMF’s latest update, BRICS nations are expected to grow at an average rate of 3.8 % in 2025, roughly four times the G7’s forecast of around 1.0 %.
How BRICS Are Pulling Ahead
The BRICS group—now expanded to include countries such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Ethiopia, Indonesia and Iran—are forecast to dominate global growth in 2025. For instance, Ethiopia leads with a projected 7.2 % growth, India at 6.6 %, and China around 4.8 %. Oil-rich Saudi Arabia is expected to grow 4.0 % and Egypt 4.3 %. Meanwhile Brazil is at 2.4 %, Russia 0.6 %, Iran 0.6 %. These numbers underscore the role of emerging markets growth driving the next phase of the global economy.
What’s Holding the G7 Back
By contrast, G7 economies—span of countries including Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK and the U.S.—are facing headwinds. Their average growth sits at about 1.0 % for 2025. The U.S. leads with 2.0 %, the UK at ~1.3 %, Canada ~1.2 %, Japan ~1.1 %. But several European countries are near stagnation: Germany ~0.2 %, Italy ~0.5 % and France ~0.7 %. These figures reflect structural issues: aging populations, low productivity growth, high interest rates, and constrained demand. These same forces suppress emerging markets growth relative to what they could achieve if conditions were more favourable.
Underlying Drivers of the Growth Gap
Several factors explain why emerging markets are gaining momentum while advanced economies lag:
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Structural advantages: BRICS nations often have younger populations, faster urbanisation and capacity for industrial expansion. These create fertile ground for emerging markets growth.
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Domestic demand and investment: Many emerging countries are boosting infrastructure investment and shifting toward technology and consumption-led growth, while many G7 economies are seeking stability rather than expansion.
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External headwinds for G7: Advanced economies face inflation, elevated interest rates, geopolitical tensions and slowing productivity growth. These hamper their capacity to deliver higher growth.
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Global growth distribution: The IMF expects a bigger share of future global growth to come from BRICS rather than G7. brics.br+3Bloomberg+3FastBull+3
What This Means for 2025 and Beyond
If these projections hold, 2025 may mark a turning point in global economic power. BRICS countries, representing nearly half the world’s population, could contribute the largest share of global growth. Advanced economies may shift focus from driving growth to managing stability and innovation. As a result, the narrative of emerging markets growth gaining dominance becomes a key theme for businesses, investors and policymakers.
Implications and Strategy
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For investors: Emerging market exposure may become more attractive, as the growth engines shift south-eastward.
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For policymakers: Advanced economies may need to focus on innovation, productivity, labour force reforms and demographic challenges to reignite growth.
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For global dynamics: The shift implies changes in trade, investment flows, currency influence and global governance. The growing prominence of emerging markets may reshape how global economic rules are set.
Conclusion
The growth gap between BRICS and G7 highlights a major structural change in the global economy. With emerging economies growing at nearly four times the pace of advanced nations, the direction of global economic power is shifting. The term emerging markets growth now captures more than high-level optimism: it defines where the momentum lies and how the world economy may reorganise. For stakeholders everywhere, acknowledging this shift is essential.
BRICS vs G7: The 2025 Growth Forecast
Below is a side-by-side comparison of IMF’s projections for BRICS and G7 economies in 2025.
| Country / Group | Projected GDP Growth 2025 (%) |
|---|---|
| Brazil | 2.4 |
| Russia | 0.6 |
| India | 6.6 |
| China | 4.8 |
| South Africa | 1.1 |
| Saudi Arabia | 4.0 |
| Egypt | 4.3 |
| UAE | 4.8 |
| Ethiopia | 7.2 |
| Indonesia | 4.9 |
| Iran | 0.6 |
| BRICS Average | 3.8 |
| Country / Group | Projected GDP Growth 2025 (%) |
|---|---|
| Canada | 1.2 |
| France | 0.7 |
| Germany | 0.2 |
| Italy | 0.5 |
| Japan | 1.1 |
| United Kingdom | 1.3 |
| United States | 2.0 |
| G7 Average | 1.0 |
