Emissions EV CAR loser 16-02-2023
Emissions EV CAR loser
-Emissions, costs and materials: why electric is a loser
Stopping internal combustion vehicles is useless for the climate, harmful for the environment, socially impracticable and destructive for industry and the economy. The good news is that there won’t be, because in the end, consumers will decide. But now government and industry decide whether to follow science or Greta.
Useless. Emissions EV CAR loser
The climate is changing and the most accredited scientific hypothesis claims that it depends on man-made greenhouse gases, the concentration of which in the atmosphere increased from 280 parts-per-million in 1850 to 370 in 2000, the year of China’s entry into the WTO and its industrial take-off, up to the current 420. Global CO2 is 37 billion tonnes (gt).
Now, the European Parliament, the same one that decided to stop, says that “the transport sector is responsible for 30% of total CO2 emissions in Europe, of which 72% comes from road transport alone”. Emissions EV CAR loser
Cars “are among the most polluting vehicles, considering that they generate 60.7% of the total CO2 emissions from transport”.
Very high percentages. But in quantity?
The European Environment Agency, a body of the EU, reports that in 2019 European transport emitted 0.835 gt of CO2, of which 72% on the road, i.e. 0.601 gt, of which 61% cars, i.e. 0.367 gt, equal to 1 % (one-per-cent) of the total. By way of comparison, the International Energy Agency reports that in the two-year period 2020-21, while the rest of the world reduced CO2 emissions by 0.570 gt, China alone increased them by 0.750 gt. Emissions EV CAR loser
This means that if all cars circulating in Europe were to magically switch to zero emissions, the benefit for the climate would not only be minimal, but would be canceled by the Dragon in just one year. Corollary: what are we talking about?
Harmful. An electric car has zero exhaust emissions, not in the complete cycle: to compensate for the CO2 linked to the production of the battery, 80 to 150,000 km are needed with zero emissions. Emissions EV CAR loser
Then comes the issue of recycling or disposal of batteries. Then there is the generation of electricity. In the current European mix, just over half comes from nuclear power and renewables: zero emissions do not exist. To this, we must add the damages associated with the extraction and processing of the raw materials needed to produce batteries, solar panels and wind turbines.
Environmental but also social damage, due to the exploitation of territories and manpower in Africa and Asia. Emissions EV CAR loser
Impractical. Sales of electric cars have increased in recent years and account for around 15/16% in the three main markets, Germany, the UK and France, while in Italy and Spain they do not reach 4% and have also decreased in the last year. According to some, we are behind on the road to progress. In terms of cold economic analysis, the numbers say something else, that there is a different adoption of this technology, for various factors: availability of private parking space, per capita income, effectiveness of incentives, gullibility that it will be so.
But above all they say that the adoption curve tends to a limit, a ceiling, and that this ceiling is far from 100%. Why? There are various reasons, but the basic one is that the use of electric cars requires a planning of travel, depending on the time and the difficulty of recharging, which is not compatible with today’s lifestyles, made up of last minute decisions and of flexibility.
Industrial and economic suicide. The European automotive industry has engine and gearbox technology that is difficult to match in the short term by Chinese competitors. Giving up this competitive advantage means opening up the market to Dragon manufacturers. Emissions EV CAR loser
According to a recent survey conducted by the Fleet&Mobility Study Center for AgitaLab, a think tank, 38% of sector operators predict that they will be able to conquer a share of the European market between 20 and 30% in less than twenty years, while for 23 % will exceed 30%.
For reference, it took Japanese and Korean manufacturers thirty years to get to the current 21% of the market. Emissions EV CAR loser
Also, 95% believe they will be products made in China. Add to this the dependence on raw materials and batteries.
In the light of the facts, the ideological obstinacy of Parliament and the Commission seems truly incomprehensible. But now the government and industry can no longer hesitate.
They need to take a clear and definitive position: to support this economic and industrial suicide or to affirm that the heat engine will not be discontinued and to work so that the next bodies resulting from next year’s elections put things right.
Emissions EV CAR loser