Asia-economies – Crude-oil-prices 07-04-2022

Asia-economies – Crude-oil-prices

Crude Oil Prices Trend 

Crude Oil Prices Trend  Polyestertime

-MEG: a long road for price recovery

Crude oil prices are expected to keep firm in short-and-medium term, according the latest forecast for crude oil supply and demand made by OPEC, IEA and EIA.

Coal prices in ports/thermal coal futures receded recently, but delivered prices of coal to chemical plants remained high or even around 100yuan/mt higher than H1 Mar. The actual coal prices that coal chemical plants could get were nearly the highest within this year. A coal-based MEG plant in Anhui province has lowered operating rate due to high coal prices, and a plant in Henan province has not decided the restart timing.  Asia-economies – Crude-oil-prices

MEG production margins remain negative

MEG cash flows for different production routes remain low on firm costs.

Loss for ethylene-based MEG: around 1,800yuan/mt

Loss for naphtha to MEG: around $250/mt

Coal-based MEG in loss

Coal (for gasification) prices:

1,100-1200 yuan/mt in Inner Mongolia

1,300yuan/mt in Henan

200-5,300 yuan/mt

For some plants, the coal prices are ab

Based on the average price of 1,000yuan/mt delivered:

the cash cost + freight rate: around 5,ove 1,000yuan/mt. So those plants are mostly in losses.

Ethane-ethylene-MEG

Ethane cracking margins remained favorable on rising ethylene price in Northeast Asia. Despite losses in olefin downstream and difficulties in logistics, ethane-based EO/EG plants could still get good margins. Asia-economies – Crude-oil-prices

Supply-demand situation

Due to persistent poor economics, MEG output continues decreasing. Decrease in total MEG inventory is estimated at around 150kt in April-May.

Recently, several polyester plants have announced to reduce output in April. Then the supply-demand structure would weaken with the joint output reduction.

MEG: a long road for price recovery

-Developing Asia economies to grow by 5.2% in 2022 – ADB

Developing Asia’s economies are forecast to grow 5.2% this year on the back of a robust recovery in domestic demand and a continued expansion in exports, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said on Wednesday. Asia-economies – Crude-oil-prices

The ADB’s growth forecast for 2022 is lower than the 6.9% expansion for last year.

However, uncertainties stemming from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the continuing pandemic, and tightening by the US Federal Reserve pose risks to the growth outlook for 2022, the ADB said in a statement.

Inflation in the region remains manageable but is forecast to rise to 3.7% this year from 2.5% in 2021, before moderating to 3.1% in 2023.

Several subregions, including south Asia and east Asia, are expected to return to the economic growth rates they experienced before the pandemic, it said.

“The Russian invasion of Ukraine poses the most severe risk to developing Asia’s economic outlook. The war is already affecting economies in the region through sharp increases in prices for commodities such as oil, and has heightened instability in global financial markets,” the ADB said.

“COVID-19 continues to impact many parts of developing Asia, with some economies experiencing new surges in cases,” it said.

China, the region’s largest economy, is forecast to grow by 5.0% this year and 4.8% next year amid continued export strength, while India is expected to grow by 7.5% this fiscal year.

The ADB’s projection for a deceleration in Asian economic growth this year mirrors the World Bank’s projection for a slowdown in east Asia and Pacific countries earlier this week. Asia-economies – Crude-oil-prices

The World Bank cut its GDP growth forecast for the region to 5.0% in its April report titled “Braving the Storms” released on 4 April.

Asia-economies - Crude-oil-prices

MEG: a long road for price recovery

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