Petrochemicals BGPET – Goldman Sachs says the Israel-Hamas war could have major implications for Europe’s economy 06-11-2023
- Polymers : PET – r-PET – Filament grade semidull chips -Filament grade bright chips – Ny6 – Ny66 – PP
- Feedstocks PX – PTA – MEG – CPL – Adipic Acid – Benzene – ACN – Ethylene – Phenol – Naphtha
- Textile : Polyester POY – DTY – FDY – PSF – Recycled Polyester POY – Nylon POY – DTY – FDY Spandex 20-30-40 -Viscose Staple Fiber VSF Acrylic Staple Fiber
|Bottle grade PET chips domestic market||6,900 yuan/ton||6,900 yuan/ton||–|
|Bottle grade PET chips export market||885 $/ton||880 $/ton||-5|
|Filament grade Semidull chips domestic market||6,790 yuan/ton||6,780 yuan/ton||-10|
|Filament grade Bright chips domestic market||6,830 yuan/ton||6,830 yuan/ton||–|
|Pure Terephthalic Acid PTA domestic market||5,900 yuan/ton||5,890 yuan/ton||-10|
|Pure Terephthalic Acid PTA export market||730 $/ton||740 $/ton||+10|
|Monoethyleneglycol MEG domestic market||4,070 yuan/ton||4,080 yuan/ton||+10|
|Monoethyleneglycol MEG export market||468 $/ton||470 $/ton||+2|
|Paraxylene PX FOB Taiwan market
|1,014 $/ton||1,031 $/ton
|Paraxylene PX FOB Korea market||991 $/ton||1,008 $/ton||+17|
|Paraxylene PX FOB EU market||1,150 $/ton||1,150 $/ton||–|
|Polyester filament POY 150D/48F domestic market||7,400 yuan/ton||7,280 yuan/ton
|Recycled Polyester filament POY domestic market||7,550 yuan/ton||7,550 yuan/ton||–|
|Polyester filament DTY 150D/48 F domestic market||8,700 yuan/ton||8,650 yuan/ton||-50|
|Polyester filament FDY 68D24F
|8,750 yuan/ton||8,700 yuan/ton||-50|
|Polyester filament FDY 150D/96F domestic market||8,050 yuan/ton||7,950 yuan/ton||-100|
|Polyester staple fiber 1.4D 38mm domestic market||7,500 yuan/ton||7,450 yuan/ton||-50|
|Caprolactam CPL domestic market||12,750 yuan/ton||12,825 yuan/ton
|Caprolactam CPL overseas market||1,600 $/ton||1,600 $/ton||–|
|Nylon 6 chips overseas market||1,830 $/ton||1,830 $/ton||–|
|Nylon 6 chips conventional spinning domestic market||13,750 yuan/ton||13,800 yuan/ton||+50|
|Nylon 6 chips high speed spinning domestic market
|13,900 yuan/ton||14,050 yuan/ton||+150|
|Nylon 6.6 chips domestic market||19,700 yuan/ton||20,000 yuan/ton||+300|
|Nylon6 Filament POY 86D/24F domestic market||16,100 yuan/ton||16,150 yuan/ton||+50|
|Nylon6 Filament DTY 70D/24F domestic market||18,250 yuan/ton||18,300 yuan/ton-||+50|
|Nylon6 Filament FDY 70D/24F||17,250 yuan/ton||17,200 yuan/ton||-50|
|Spandex 20D domestic market
|36,500 yuan/ton||36,500 yuan/ton||–|
|Spandex 30D domestic market||35,000 yuan/ton||35,000 yuan/ton||–|
|Spandex 40D domestic market||32,000 yuan/ton||32,000 yuan/ton||–|
|Adipic Acid domestic market||9,300 yuan/ton||9,150 yuan/ton||-150|
|Benzene domestic market
|8,340 yuan/ton||7,940 yuan/ton||-400|
|Benzene overseas market||911 $/ton||905 $/ton||-6|
|Ethylene South East market||970 $/ton||945 $/ton||-25|
|Ethylene NWE market||679 $/ton||717 $/ton||+38|
|Acrylonitrile ACN domestic market
|9,500 yuan/ton||9,700 yuan/ton||+200|
|Acrylonitrile ACN overseas market||1,200 $/ton||1,200 $/ton||–|
|Acrylic staple fiber ASF domestic market||14,600 yuan/ton||14,600 yuan/ton||–|
|Viscose Staple Fiber VSF domestic market||13,350 yuan/ton||13,200 yuan/ton||-150|
|PP Powder domestic market
|7,350 yuan/ton||7,350 yuan/ton||–|
|Naphtha overseas market||658 $/ton||658 $/ton||–|
|Phenol domestic market||8,425 yuan/ton||7,812 yuan/ton||-613|
r-PET high end eco-friendly chips =7,800 yuan/ton — 7,900 yuan/ton –
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Goldman Sachs says the Israel-Hamas war could have major implications for Europe’s economy
- The ongoing Israel-Hamas war could affect European economies via lower regional trade, tighter financial conditions, higher energy prices and lower consumer confidence, Goldman Sachs said.
- Concerns are growing among economists that the conflict could spill over and engulf the Middle East, with Israel and Lebanon exchanging missiles, as Israel continues to bombard Gaza.
The ongoing hostilities could affect European economies via lower regional trade, tighter financial conditions, higher energy prices and lower consumer confidence, Europe Economics Analyst Katya Vashkinskaya highlighted in a research note Wednesday.
Concerns are growing among economists that the conflict could spill over and engulf the Middle East, with Israel and Lebanon exchanging missiles as Israel continues to bombard Gaza, resulting in massive civilian casualties and a deepening humanitarian crisis.
Although the tensions could affect European economic activity via lower trade with the Middle East, Vashkinskaya highlighted that the continent’s exposure is limited, given that the euro area exports around 0.4% of the GDP to Israel and its neighbors, while the British trade exposure is less than 0.2% of the GDP.
She noted that tighter financial conditions could weigh on growth and exacerbate the existing drag on economic activity from higher interest rates in both the euro area and the U.K. However, Goldman does not see a clear pattern between financial conditions and previous episodes of tension in the Middle East
The most important and potentially impactful way in which tensions could spill over into the European economy is through oil and gas markets, Vashkinskaya sai“Since the current conflict broke out, commodities markets have seen increased volatility, with Brent crude oil and European natural gas prices up by around 9% and 34% at the peak respectively,” she said.
Goldman’s commodities team assessed a set of downside scenarios in which oil prices could rise by between 5% and 20% above the baseline, depending on the severity of the oil supply shock.
“A persistent 10% oil price increase usually reduces Euro area real GDP by about 0.2% after one year and boosts consumer prices by almost 0.3pp over this time, with similar effects observed in the U.K.,” Vashkinskaya said.