? Why Harmonized End-of-Waste Criteria Matter

Europe is at a pivotal moment in its transition toward a circular economy. One area that demands urgent attention is the recycling of end-of-life tires (ELTs). While millions of tires are discarded across the EU each year, the potential to recover rubber for reuse is largely untapped due to a critical regulatory gap.

At the heart of the issue lies the absence of a unified definition of when recycled rubber ceases to be considered “waste.” This lack of end-of-waste (EoW) criteria prevents ELT-derived rubber from being treated as a secondary raw material across all EU Member States.  Oil Demand Growth

? Industry Calls to Action: EuRIC and ETRMA

Two major industry associations are taking the lead in advocating for change. In a joint position paper titled “Harmonized End-of-Waste Criteria: A Key Step to Strengthening Europe’s Tyre Recycling Market”, the European Confederation of Recycling Industries (EuRIC) and the European Tyre and Rubber Manufacturers’ Association (ETRMA) urge the European Commission to take swift and decisive action.

The paper highlights that the lack of harmonized EoW criteria is stifling the market. Different interpretations by Member States have created a legal patchwork that undermines cross-border trade, discourages investment in circular technologies, and discourages the use of recycled materials. Oil Demand Growth

? Technical Readiness, Legal Ambiguity

“The technical conditions for ELT rubber to cease being waste have already been defined,” explains Julia Ettinger, Secretary General of EuRIC. “However, legal certainty is lacking. We urgently need EU-wide criteria to unlock intra-EU trade, attract investment, and promote the sustainable use of recycled rubber.”

Without legal harmonization, producers and recyclers face inconsistent requirements, increased costs, and limited scalability. These obstacles are incompatible with the EU’s climate goals and its ambition to reduce reliance on virgin materials.

? Market Benefits of EU-Wide Criteria

Adam McCarthy, Secretary General of ETRMA, emphasizes the market potential:
Standardized EU-wide criteria will boost demand for high-quality recycled rubber and reduce Europe’s dependence on primary raw materials.

By removing regulatory uncertainty, clear EoW rules can increase the integration of recycled rubber into new tires and industrial applications. Oil Demand Growth
This would contribute directly to the objectives of the Ecodesign for Sustainable Products Regulation (ESPR), which requires more sustainable, circular production processes.

? Supporting the Circular Economy and ESPR

The introduction of end-of-waste criteria aligns perfectly with the ESPR’s goals, which promote the use of recycled content in new products.
Recovered rubber from ELTs, if legally considered a non-waste material, would open up new supply chains and business models across the EU.

From tire manufacturers to civil engineering and sports infrastructure, many sectors could benefit from reliable access to quality-controlled, certified secondary rubber.

⚖️ Legal Foundations: Waste Framework Directive Oil Demand Growth

Both EuRIC and ETRMA propose the development of binding EoW criteria under the existing EU Waste Framework Directive. This approach ensures:

• ? Legal consistency across all Member States
• ? Streamlined access to markets for recyclers
• ? Greater investment in ELT recycling technologies
• ♻️ Higher volumes of circular material usage

The associations have expressed their full willingness to collaborate with the Commission, Member States, and technical experts to design workable, enforceable, and science-based end-of-waste criteria. Oil Demand Growth

? Potential Impact Across Europe

Harmonized EoW criteria will not only simplify regulation—it will revolutionize the market. Some of the projected benefits include:

• ? Increased export and import of ELT rubber within the EU
• ? Growth in green jobs across recycling and manufacturing sectors
• ? Improved traceability and certification systems
• ? Measurable reduction in environmental footprint of tires

From Position Paper to Policy Change

The position paper from EuRIC and ETRMA serves as a blueprint for action. It encourages the Commission to:

1. Launch stakeholder consultations with recyclers and manufacturers
2. Define technical standards and quality benchmarks for recovered rubber
3. Integrate the criteria into the Waste Framework Directive
4. Ensure digital traceability and market surveillance

If implemented promptly, these measures will position the EU as a global leader in sustainable tire recycling and green innovation. Oil Demand Growth

? Final Thoughts

The time for harmonized end-of-waste criteria is now. By transforming recovered rubber from ELTs into a recognized resource, the EU can deliver  on its circular economy ambitions, reduce carbon emissions, and stimulate innovation.

The coordinated efforts of EuRIC and ETRMA offer a clear path forward. What’s needed is regulatory action—grounded in science and aligned with market needs.

? Green Energy Milestone in Chifeng

In a monumental step towards global decarbonization, Envision Energy has officially launched what it claims is the most advanced green hydrogen and ammonia facility in the world. Located in the Chifeng Net Zero Industrial Park in Inner Mongolia, China,
the plant sets new standards for AI-enabled, off-grid, clean energy production at scale.

With a projected annual output of 320,000 tonnes of green ammonia starting Q4 this year, the facility positions itself as a pivotal player in the hydrogen economy, marking a shift from promise to production.

? The Power Behind the Plant: Off-Grid & AI-Enabled

Unlike conventional facilities, Envision’s plant operates on an off-grid renewable ecosystem — powered entirely by wind turbines, solar panels, and a smart grid infrastructure supported by large-scale battery energy storage systems (BESS). This unique setup eliminates dependency on traditional power grids. Oil Demand Growth

What sets this project further apart is its fully integrated Artificial Intelligence (AI) control layer, capable of real-time demand forecasting, predictive maintenance, and dynamic load balancing. The system continuously optimizes the interaction between renewable inputs, electrolysers, and ammonia synthesis units.

? First-Ever Application of Energy Flexibility at Commercial Scale

Envision’s plant pioneers the application of load flexibility and energy storage at commercial scale. A key innovation involves converting surplus green energy into liquid nitrogen using an advanced air separation unit (ASU), which stores energy for later use.

Electrolysers, which split water into hydrogen and oxygen, are synchronized with predictive meteorological models to intelligently adapt to renewable supply swings. This results in steady, efficient green ammonia production—regardless of weather volatility. Oil Demand Growth

? Green Ammonia: Hydrogen’s Scalable Future

Beyond just hydrogen, the facility emphasizes green ammonia as a game-changing vector for transporting and storing clean energy.
Unlike hydrogen gas, ammonia can be shipped using existing global infrastructure, offering a scalable route to decarbonizing heavy industry.

According to Envision, green ammonia serves as a stable carrier for hydrogen, unlocking potential in sectors like:

• ? Shipping and marine fuels
• ? Fertilizer production
• ⚗️ Industrial chemicals and refining Oil Demand Growth

A long-term offtake agreement with Marubeni Corporation, one of Japan’s largest trading houses, ensures early market adoption.

? AI + Meteorology: The Secret to Stability

Wind and solar inputs fluctuate—but Envision solves this with real-time weather modelling integrated with AI. This unique synergy ensures
optimal energy delivery to the plant’s electrolysers and synthesis units.

As a result, the facility maintains uninterrupted green fuel production without relying on grid power or fossil-fuel backup systems—a first of its kind globally.

? Scaling Ambitions: A Million-Tonne Vision

The Chifeng plant is just the beginning. Envision projects that by 2028, the site will scale up to deliver 1.5 million tonnes of green ammonia annually. This would make it one of the largest green fuel hubs in the world.

The Chifeng Net Zero Industrial Park is designed as a replicable blueprint—a model that can be exported globally to support climate goals and industrial transformation.

?️ Certification & Regulatory Alignment

The facility has already earned Renewable Ammonia Certification from Bureau Veritas, establishing trust and traceability in a market that increasingly demands verified sustainability credentials. Oil Demand Growth

This certification ensures compliance with global standards on:

• ? Carbon footprint transparency
• ? Circular economy integration
• ? Supply chain traceability

Price Parity by 2028: A Bold Economic Target

One of Envision’s most ambitious goals is to achieve price parity between green ammonia and its grey counterparts (produced using fossil fuels) by 2028. If successful, this would disrupt existing ammonia and methanol markets, democratizing access to clean fuels.

Factors enabling this goal include:

• ?️ Advanced electrolyser efficiency
• ? Declining renewable energy costs
• ⚙️ Full-stack AI optimization reducing operational expenses

Leadership Speaks

“This is more than a technological milestone,” said Lei Zhang, Founder and CEO of Envision Energy. Oil Demand Growth
“Scalable, green alternatives are now real and operational. We can’t get to Net Zero without green hydrogen—and we can’t afford to wait.”

Zhang emphasized that the project provides a working blueprint for a clean energy future, built on technology that can scale, adapt, and inspire global transformation.

? Final Takeaway

Envision Energy’s revolutionary green hydrogen and ammonia plant in Chifeng is more than a facility—it’s a future-proof energy ecosystem. From AI-powered stability to
off-grid independence, it offers a replicable model to accelerate global decarbonization.

As green hydrogen takes its place in the industrial energy landscape, Envision’s bold vision offers the blueprint the world needs—and now has. Oil Demand Growth

?️ Global Oil Market Appears Oversupplied—But Looks Can Be Deceiving

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its outlook for oil demand, projecting a modest global growth of just
700,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2025—the slowest pace in over a decade, excluding the COVID-affected year of 2020.

While headline figures suggest a significant supply surplus—with production set to rise by 2.1 million bpd—the agency warns that
the market may in fact be tighter than it seems. Refinery activity, seasonal consumption spikes, and power generation needs are all
placing renewed pressure on supplies.

⚖️ Supply-Demand Balances Signal Surplus—but the Market Reacts Differently

In its July report, the IEA increased its forecast for global supply growth by 300,000 bpd compared to its previous estimate.
However, this is offset by stagnating demand, leading to a perceived oversupply.

Yet, oil prices remain stable or even rising, with Brent crude hovering near $69 per barrel as of Friday—evidence that market fundamentals are more complex than a simple supply-demand equation. Oil Demand Growth

“The decision by OPEC+ to further accelerate the unwinding of production cuts failed to move markets in a meaningful way given tighter
fundamentals,” said the IEA.

Indicators like refining margins and backwardation structures (when near-term oil prices are higher than future contracts) point to a robust, short-term demand environment.

? Summer Travel & Energy Use Are Driving Hidden Tightness

Oil consumption traditionally surges during the Northern Hemisphere’s summer season, with more travel via air and road. Oil Demand Growth
In response, global refineries are ramping up crude processing, with an expected increase of 3.7 million bpd from May to August.

Additionally, the IEA reports a doubling of crude oil use for electricity generation, largely to power air conditioning systems across the Middle East and Asia, reaching 900,000 bpd. This unorthodox yet impactful use case tightens availability despite the larger supply backdrop.

? Why Physical Indicators Tell a Different Story

While spreadsheets show surplus, market behavior suggests otherwise. The IEA highlights several pricing signals that reveal underlying strength:

• ? Backwardation: Near-term contracts are priced higher than later ones, signaling demand urgency.
• ? Healthy refinery margins: Indicate strong demand for refined products despite implied stock builds.
• ? Inventory data: Output hikes aren’t leading to meaningful storage increases, suggesting strong offtake rates.

These conditions echo sentiments from OPEC ministers and Western oil executives, who argue that “markets remain thirsty for oil.” Oil Demand Growth

? Long-Term Demand Growth: Slowing But Still Growing

Although demand is still increasing, the pace is unmistakably slowing. The IEA forecasts a rise of just 720,000 bpd in 2026, down 20,000 bpd from its previous forecast.

These are the lowest growth rates since 2009 (excluding pandemic anomalies), and they reflect structural changes in energy consumption—especially as more countries push for electrification, renewable alternatives, and stricter emissions controls. Oil Demand Growth

? Regional Trends and Tariff Turmoil

The IEA also flagged geopolitical uncertainty and tariffs as possible contributors to reduced oil appetite in key economies.
Countries cited as seeing the sharpest slowdowns include:

• ?? China
• ?? Japan
• ?? South Korea
• ?? United States
• ?? Mexico

These nations are considered to be in the “crosshairs of tariff turmoil,” with trade frictions potentially hampering fuel-intensive industries
and logistics.

However, the IEA stops short of attributing causation, noting it’s still too early to confirm if tariffs are directly impacting
oil demand. Oil Demand Growth

? Energy Transition: A Driving Factor Behind IEA’s Conservative Forecasts

One reason the IEA’s forecasts tend to be lower than other agencies, like OPEC’s estimate of 1.3 million bpd growth, is its
belief in a faster global energy transition. The agency assumes that electric vehicles, improved fuel efficiency, and
renewable adoption will reduce oil’s share in the energy mix.

This conservative modeling aligns with the IEA’s Net Zero roadmap, which calls for no new oil exploration if global climate
goals are to be met by 2050.

? Final Word: A Market in Transition Oil Demand Growth

Despite official numbers pointing to an oil surplus, the market signals something different: that real-world consumption remains strong,
driven by seasonal trends, geopolitics, and evolving energy use cases.

The IEA’s report serves as a reminder that data alone doesn’t tell the whole story. Market fundamentals, behavioral shifts, and
macroeconomic headwinds all converge to shape outcomes. As we approach 2026, the oil market stands at a unique crossroads between resilience
and reinvention.